Cameron is on course for victory say bankers: Goldman Sachs tell investors strong economic growth and improved household incomes will help Tory cause
- Goldman Sachs predicts a Conservative win in 2015 General Election
- Analysts said recent economic growth will help Cameron remain PM
- But added 2015 election is 'more uncertain than any in a hundred years'
Britain's economic recovery has put David Cameron on course to remain Prime Minister after the General Election, investment bank Goldman Sachs has told clients.
In a note to investors, Goldman analyst Kevin Daly said strong economic growth and an improvement in household incomes would help the Tory cause.
But he cautioned that the political situation in the UK was unpredictable, with no party looking like securing an overall majority.
Keeping the crown: Goldman Sachs predicts that David Cameron, pictured at the first Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, will win the election thanks to strong economic growth and an improvement in household incomes
‘It is not an exaggeration to say that the outcome to this election is more uncertain than any in a hundred years,’ he said.
‘The likelihood of any party gaining an overall majority appears low, but we think the Conservative Party is marginally more likely than Labour to win the most seats and lead the next government.’
Mr Daly said the ‘unusually wide gap between the Conservatives and Labour in terms of perceived economic competence’ echoed the situation in 1992, when the Tories defied the polls to claim victory.
He went on: ‘Our economic forecasts – relatively strong growth, with a significant improvement in household disposable income – provide a backdrop that is likely to be favourable for the incumbent parties.’
Unsure: Goldman Sachs' analyst told clients that the outcome to the 2015 General Election is 'more uncertain than any in a hundred years'
The investment bank prides itself on the accuracy of its predictions, but Tory strategists are taking no chances and are said to be making contingency plans to fight a second general election this year.
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Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, will be confirmed tomorrow as the Lib Dems’ main economics spokesman in a major snub to Business Secretary Vince Cable, who filled the role during the last election campaign.
Senior figures warn that another coalition with the Liberal Democrats could be torpedoed by backbench MPs and, with polls pointing to a hung parliament, party sources say a unit has secretly begun work on a second election campaign for a vote that could take place within months of the one in May.
Even some senior ministers are known to be privately of the view that Mr Cameron should attempt to run a minority government, with a quick second general election, if the Conservatives again miss a majority but end up as the largest party.